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HOW DO I LOOK AT BETS TO TIP
(Including "Implied probability")
Firstly, I determine in my own mind what I think the outcome will be BEFORE I look at odds, as subconsciously or otherwise that may influence me. The best way of doing this is just to view the fixture list only.
Next, I use a site like Flashscore to look at recent form and statistics to see if that changes or influences my point of view.
Thirdly, I look at “implied probabilities” as above and see if there is any perceived “value” in my selection.
So again, using the above example.
My immediate opinion is that Everton will win this game just by looking at the fixture list.
Research will show Everton 7th in League, Palace 4th from bottom.
Recent form Everton 3W 1D 1L (including 4-0) over Man City last week.
Palace 0W 1D 4L (including 3-0 loss to West Ham last week)
Everton scored over 1.5 goals in last 4 out 5 games
Crystal Palace have conceded over 1.5 goals in 3 out of last 4 league games
ALL of this supports my initial view that Everton should win this game!!
THE IMPLIED PROBABILITY OF EVERTON WINNING at 13/10 ODDS is 43.48% CHANCE.
MY BELIEF IS THAT THE ACTUAL PROBABILITY IS HIGHER THAN THIS AND THEREFORE A GOOD BET.
My actual bet is Everton over 1.5 team goals at odds 11/8 (“Implied Probability” of 42%)
As this includes Win Lose and Draw in my favour, as long as they score 2 goals, I think this is even better value than a straight win.
BUT THAT IS ANOTHER STORY FOR ANOTHER DAY…………….
FINDING VALUE IN BETTING
It is fair to say that many gamblers do not actually understand odds, probability and how bookmakers make a profit regardless of outcome.
It is a hugely complicated area to most people and certainly the non mathematically minded. However, even just understanding the basics might help you gamble more efficiently.
I will in the first instance try to keep the maths as simple as possible, but it will give you a better insight into how to find a so called value bet. A value bet is something many “Tipsters” and some “Punters refer to without actually understanding the process to determine value!
First of all you need to understand how to calculate “implied probability”. This means what the odds are saying is the probability of each event happening.
Eg To calculate the implied probability of a 5/2 bet winning
Add the 5 and 2 together = 7
Divide 2 by 7 = 2/7
Multiply by 100
This gives an implied probability of 28.57% that the bet will win
Eg2 To calculate the implied probability of a 4/5 bet winning
Add 4 and 5 together =9
Divide 5 by 9 = 5/9
Multiply by 100
This gives an implied probability of 55.55% that the bet will win.
So let’s look at a real example of a game being played this weekend:-
Crystal Palace – Everton
The quoted fractional odds are:-
Crystal Palace Win 11/5
Everton Win 13/10
So the first thing to do is calculate the “implied probabilities” of each possible outcome.
Crystal Palace Win 11/5 gives implied probability of 31.25% (5/16x100)
Draw 9/4 gives implied probability of 30.76% (4/13x100)
Everton Win 13/10 gives implied probability of 43.48% (10/23x100)
The interesting thing to note first of all is discovered by adding all three outcomes percentages together
31.25% + 30.76% + 43.48% = 105.49%
What you should immediately notice is that all three outcomes probabilities do NOT add up to 100%.
You may have heard of “Bookies Margins” or the phrase “Over round”. This is what it is!
So in simple terms the “Bookies Margin” regardless of outcome is 5.49%. So in the long term with thousands of samples the bookies underlying profit margin built in to the odds is in this case 5.49%.
Maybe think as this as the “House Advantage”as in Casinos, or their profit margin.
So how do you use this knowledge to your advantage?
(There is a calculation to take out the bookies margin and reset the total probabilities to 100% but for simplicity we will use the “implied probabilities” from these odds.)